Scenario lab - South Vosges

Presentation of the Scenario Lab of South Vosges - Doller basin and Déodatie

This scenario lab encompasses two zones of different sizes that highlight regional shifts in the Vosges and the effects of climate change on the health of Vosges softwood stands. In the Pays de la Déodatie (1190 km2), the intergovernmental group for rural and regional affairs (Pôle d'Equilibre Territorial et Rural; PETR) is heavily involved in the forest industry’s considerable economic activity. With the goal of facilitating adaptations to climate change, PETR established an Ecological Transition Contract in 2020. One of its focal points is to maintain forest quality and ensure the forest industry’s resilience and social and economic viability. Another focus is addressing the vulnerability of grasslands to drought, a concern for agricultural systems. The second zone is the Doller Valley (100 km2), which is located in the Hautes Vosges and extends from the Alsace Plain to the Ballons des Vosges. Since 2019, the federation of municipalities for the Doller Valley and Soultzbach has been actively committed to tackling regional challenges related to climate change (in the case of forests) and land use changes (in the case of agricultural systems).

These two zones have been the centre of research on tree dieback, largely conducted by engineering and master’s students at AgroParisTech and the University of Lorraine. In the Doller Valley, biophysical data will be acquired using advanced technologies (wireless sensors in stakes, drones, photogrammetry, and LiDAR) and portable instruments (spatial reference systems, remote sensing). As part of an ANR project (FISSA 2023–2026), CAPSIS-based models of forest dynamics are being developed that will be able to simulate changes to the forest resulting from climatic constraints and different management regimes.

SLAM-B will specifically focus on data describing stakeholder strategies in forestry and agricultural systems in the two zones. It will also couple MAELIA (regional modelling of multiple ecosystems) and CAPSIS (modelling of forest dynamics) with the goal of simulating regional changes (WP1). Then, as part of a joint effort with WP1, this task will combine climate scenarios with scenarios involving shifts in vegetation patterns and management regimes in forestry and agricultural systems. During participative workshops, a range of stakeholders (e.g., researchers, policymakers, farmers, foresters, local citizens, non-profit organisations) will be invited to consider these scenario combinations as they reflect on regional changes and propose short-, medium-, and long-term strategies for improving industry resilience and achieving carbon neutrality by 2050.