Scenario lab - Ferlo and Sine in Senegal

Presentation of Scenario lab for the Ferlo Basin in Senegal

Since the latter half of the 20th century, the Sahel ecosystem has been experiencing degradation, with causes both climatic and anthropogenic. In tropical semi-arid habitats, agricultural systems are mainly pastoral and agropastoral; they have also adapted over time to reduce their risk sensitivity and vulnerability to uncertainty. However, these adaptations have progressively caused ecosystem degradation, resource overexploitation, and positive net carbon emissions. Past research has shown that it is possible to address these issues by applying integrative mixed farming techniques and by restoring degraded lands via sustainable resource management.

To achieve these objectives, however, a number of socio-technical obstacles need to be overcome. In Sahelian-type agro-sylvo-pastoral contexts, this scenario lab hypothesizes the need to establish a dialogue between stakeholders in a territory to co-construct viable scenarios aimed at carbon neutrality and sustainable development objectives.

Two areas were chosen for the deployment of Lab Scenarios in the Sahelian zone: the pastoral unit of Labgar (Louga region) and the Observatoire Population Santé Environnement (OPSE) of Niakhar (Fatick region). These two areas were chosen because they are representative of land use in the Great Green Wall (GGW) Sahel intervention zone.

The methodology of the "Ferlo Sine" project is to implement an IAM approach to evaluate carbon neutrality scenarios along an agro-sylvo-pastoral gradient. At the start of this approach, a diagnosis of MAELIA's capacity to deal with agro-sylvo-pastoral dynamics will be established, and the complementary modules, either developed in WP1 (coupling with existing models, mobile livestock module) or developed by IRD teams, will be mobilized and integrated. The scenarios, quantified using this adapted version of MAELIA, will be discussed with the local populations. The best scenarios will then be debated with local authorities, NGOs, government departments and local populations, in order to draw up a territorial action plan aimed at achieving carbon neutrality by 2035. The results will be used to design a low-carbon scenario for the whole GGW.